A legitimate question arises: maybe they bet wrong, on the wrong sports? Are there any sports from which you can make more profit compared to others? That’s what this article will talk about.
The Heartless Theory of Probability
Any bet is a risk. And a player can lose money, even if it seems like the bet is absolutely right, and the chosen athlete or team simply has to win. The theory of probability always surprises, and a mediocre underdog can beat a sure-fire favorite, while letting a big odds and killing a promising express with the odds as low as 1.3, so beloved by many beginners.
Accept as a fact – the risk of losing is always and everywhere, no matter what you bet. Otherwise there would be no point in the very existence of bookmakers’ offices, would there? They could be called charitable foundations, simply giving money to players who bet on win-win events. But in reality this is impossible, so our task is to find the sports and markets that are most convenient for us.
What sports to bet on
- The common truth: the best sport for betting is the one you know the most.
Three outcomes or two?
In most sports, there are usually two or three outcomes on the market. The classic line with two outcomes is P1- P2, and the line with three outcomes also adds a draw. The first option we see, for example, in tennis or basketball with overtime, and the second – in soccer, handball, hockey, etc.
Many people mistakenly believe that the less outcomes on the market, the easier it is to make the right bet. In fact, the number of outcomes has no effect on your winnings. Bookmaker’s margin is in any market for any sport. And to make money you just need to bet on the sports you follow closely and in which you really understand a lot.
What kind of sport to bet on?
Individual or team sports?
- Another myth: Individual sports are easier to bet on than team sports, because you have to analyze less information about the players. On the one hand, there is a grain of truth here. There is indeed a little less to analyze. But the risk is much greater in individual sports than in team sports. We see big losses of favorites in tennis much more often than in soccer. If something goes wrong with a player, he can be replaced, so the team won’t play worse. But if a tennis player’s condition worsens during a match, you risk losing all the money you bet on him.
On the flip side of the coin, we see possible prospects from betting on individual sports. You can wager on the underdogs at huge odds, and the chances of winning will be higher than if you bet on the defeat of soccer’s Barcelona or basketball’s Golden State.
Which sport to bet on?
Big or small markets?
Most bettors bet on popular sports and world famous athletes, but real betting professionals prefer to bet on much less popular and mass-produced events. The notional fourth league of the Kuwaiti women’s soccer championship is much more lucrative than you might think. The key to success here is to gather more information about the event than the bookmaker himself can manage. For large markets with top performers, this is virtually unrealistic. The exception is when you have your own insider who provides exclusive information about the athletes. But few bettors can boast of that.
In the small markets, which do not tell the average fan anything, it is much easier to make a lot of money than in the big market. There is only one condition, but it’s extremely important – your maximum knowledge of that market. And it must be so great that it allows you to conduct your own analysis of events and go against the bookmaker, betting on large odds on the victory of those whom the office considers to be outsiders. If that’s okay, then even higher margins (sometimes as high as 7%-10%, but the top offices rarely go over 5%), which are set by the offices on small markets, won’t prevent you from steadily staying in the black and increasing your bankroll from bet to bet.